Perencanaan Safety Stock Menggunakan Metode Peramalan pada Proses Produksi Kemasan PT Empat Perdana Karton
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33021/jie.v10i01.83Keywords:
Inventory Management, Safety Stock, Forecasting, ARIMA, Operational Efficiency, Manufacturing Industry, Stock ManagementAbstract
Inventory management is a crucial aspect of the manufacturing industry to ensure smooth production processes and operational efficiency. One of the key elements in inventory management is safety stock, which serves to anticipate demand uncertainties and supply chain disruptions. This study aims to analyze the demand pattern of packaging production at PT Empat Perdana Carton, apply the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting method, and determine the optimal amount of safety stock. Production demand data was collected from January 2020 to December 2023 and analyzed using Minitab software. The research findings indicate that the ARIMA (4,0,3) model is the best-performing model, with a Mean Square Error (MSE) of 7,557.63. Based on the forecasting results, safety stock calculations were conducted at various service levels (90%-99%). The results show that the optimal safety stock ranges from 189 to 344 units, depending on the selected service level. These findings contribute to the company’s efforts to optimize inventory planning, prevent stock shortages or excesses, and enhance operational efficiency.
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